colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:
I gave you very clear points why 2019. can be around 20m, also that fall from 2019. to 2020. is really huge in any case. But yes, you definitely have pessimistic view for my taste. :)
Next gen will have atentione on lauch, but Switch will still have own market despite next gen consoles, biggest strenght of Switch will be peserved in any case, and thats hybrid concept (handheld play) and Nintendo Switch exclusive that are very popular, not to mentione that buy time PS5/XB2 arives with its price points of $400+, Switch will have around $200 price point with already built very strong lineup of games. Shipments and sales are same at end, if you look Nintendo numbers for every platform, they are all shipped, that goes for Switch, 3DS, Wii U, Wii, DS..
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html
Even 12m going from 18m in one year is huge drop for 4. FY on market, that kind of drop (33%) not even Wii had in same period, that kind of drops are usualy at end of console lifes. 3DS had that kind of drop in its 4. FY on market because 3DS had very early in life huge price cuts and revisons, and later those things couldn't effect too much on sales, thats not case with Switch, Switch is entering its 3. year on market without price cut and revision, even without bundle with one game for launch price point.
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What I'm pretty sure is that switch is going to sell way less in 2020. So if you find going from 18M shipped to 12M shipped too much then maybe this year is going to be 17M instead of 18M.
If switch sold 16'5m last year I expect switch around 17-17'5m in 2019 because despite expecting more sales in Japan, I expect less sales in Europe and flat sales in USA.
And for 2020 I really expect switch selling around 12-13M so shipments has to be somewhat similar but if in 2019 shipments go too high, in 2020 they need to be a million or more lower than sales. That's my reasoning.
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I talking about percent not about numbers, expecting around 33% less shipped numbers from 3. to 4. FY is huge drop in any case. There is no way that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.
So by your point, better lineup, first price cut and first revision dont have effect on sales, espacily when we talk about consoles that yets need to enter its 3. year on market?
