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thismeintiel on 02 February 2019
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EricHiggin said:
thismeintiel said:

I think it is rather easily predictable. 

In order for MS to get back to the 360 days, two things have to happen.  One, they don't shoot themselves in the foot.  And two, Sony shoots themselves in their own.  I don't really see either shooting themselves in the foot.  Even with those things being met last gen, Sony was still able to recover and pass the 360 in the end.  PS is just that large of a WW brand.

Sony seems to be making another traditional home console, while MS is throwing everything at the wall next gen (streaming box, low-powered and a high-powered boxes, both of which have a download-only box) hoping something will stick.  The latter of which actually can lead to consumer confusion.  If MS is advertising for 4 or 5 different consoles, but Sony has a nice all-in-one PS5, that also is B/C with their previous consoles at launch, the PS5 is going to sell on simplicity and features alone.  Really, I think MS is going to continue to move their focus to PC gaming.  They'll give XB2 a big push at the beginning of the gen, but if they meet a fate worse than the XBO, I think they are done with consoles. 

As for the Switch, we already see its impact on the PS4 and vice versa.  There isn't one.  Sony is making a killing in the traditional home console market, while Nintendo is making a killing with their hybrid.  They are different enough, and offer their own positives, that people are buying both.  Sony isn't going to screw up their business model, that is extremely successful, to try and chase some other market.  A market that has dwindled since last gen, and one that they just had a massive failure in.  The most I could see Sony doing is some kind of cheap handheld streaming device that works with the PS5.  It still wouldn't be a big focus of theirs.  In other words, Sony is doing what it does best, powerful home consoles, and Nintendo is doing what it does best, unique handhelds (now, hybrids.)

Based on how predictable the Wii, 360, PS3, XB1, Pro, XB1X, and Switch all were, plus the more complicated the hardware, software, network, subscriptions, services, etc, situation get's overall in the console market, the harder it's going to be to predict in comparison to the past, which wasn't easy back then, as much sense as it may have made in hindsight.

Just giving an opinion on a portion of what may be causing the sales doubt. If none of what is rumored is true, or only the MS portion, then that doesn't change the fact that people may be concerned about PS4's continued sales longevity because of it.

That's cool.  Still, I just don't see what MS does really affecting the PS4 at this point in time.  If it affects anything at all, it would be the PS5.  There are going to still be people looking for a really cheap PS4 once it becomes readily available at $199, and $149, if Sony can get it that low.  And if they can only afford it at those prices, I doubt they have the kind of money to afford internet fast enough, and with no data cap, to stream XB2 games competently enough, so probably wouldn't be picking up a XB2 streaming box.

Intrinsic said:

A lot of optimistic projections here..

I voted for 120M-130M.

I expect the PS4 to be around 120M by the time the PS5 is released and I don't expect it t ell any more than 10M after the PS5 is released.

I know its easy to look at the PS2 and say the PS4 will go on to sell really well after the PS5 comes along but this is not 2006. The world is much different now. This is not a knock on the PS4, I just think the uptake of the PS5 will be even faster than that of the PS4. And the market will be flooded with used cheap PS4s.

Yea, I doubt many think that the PS4 is going to pull off what the PS2 did.  No console will.  ~50M after your successor is out is just crazy.  I guess it did help that the PS3 was so expensive.  And they were able to get the PS2 down to $99.  I think the cheapest we could ever see the PS4 at is $149.  Still, I can definitely see it doing 10M-15M after the PS5 launches.  The PS1 was able to pull off 20M+, even with the PS2 being B/C and having a MUCH faster adoption rate.  And the less popular PS3 did ~7.5M.