Switch is selling better than PS4, PS2, PS1, PS3, X360 launch aligned

[DonFerrari]

 

Shadow1980 said:

Others have already mentioned the most glaring flaws of such comparisons: staggered regional launches and differences in what time of the year the system was released. Global sales never tell the whole story in and of themselves, and global LTD sales are an even less accurate comparison. This is not to say that the Switch is not doing very well, but that ZhugeEX's graph is misleading by insinuating that the Switch is doing better than it is, i.e. "better than PS2 numbers." If you take the PS2's shipment data for 2000+2001 in Japan and 2001+2002 in N. America and Europe, a different picture emerges. Adding those number up gives us a total of 42.96M units shipped. The Switch has shipped 32.3M combined for the 2017+2018 period. Looking at regional figures, it's easy to see how we end up with this corrected deficit. While the Switch has sold roughly on par with the PS2 in Japan, in the U.S. it has run a significant deficit (note that in these charts I count launch year for Q1 launches like the Switch as a full year as sales in Q1 amounted to about normal quarterly sales relative to other quarters):

Because of the lack in sales data for the PS2 in Europe, I have to use shipment data, while sales for the other systems I'll base on VGC data (which is usually nearly on the mark for annual and LTD figures after adjustments). There were 14.92M PS2s shipped in Europe during the 2001-2002 period, while according to VGC, the Wii sold about 13.5M in the 2007-2008 period, the 360 sold about 3.94M for the 2006-2007 period, the PS4 sold just over 13M in the 2014-2015 period, and the Switch has so far amassed 8.22M as of the week ending Dec. 29 (presumably the end of VGC's 2018 tracking period).

So, the Switch isn't even close to doing PS2 numbers globally, though it is close just in Japan. Against the PS4, the Switch is besting it by a huge margin in Japan, trailing it by a significant amount in Europe, and the two are about on par in the U.S. Against the Wii, the Switch is slightly ahead in Japan (and that margin will continue to grow as the Wii was very front-loaded in Japan), but trailing it by a significant amount in the U.S. & Europe. Against the 360, the Switch is obviously destroying it by an entire order of magnitude, and is handily outpacing it in Europe and the U.S.; however, it's worth pointing out that the 360 had a late and quite large peak in the U.S., selling over 14M units combined in the 2010-2011 period, and I somehow doubt that the Switch will be pulling those kind of numbers in the 2021-2022 period, that is unless it pulls off some miraculously anomalous DS-level growth. And to throw the 3DS on the pile, the Switch is outpacing it by a good bit in the U.S. & Europe but trailing it in Japan, likely due to its relatively high price point (not too bad for a home console, but expensive for a handheld).

Of course, what's happening now isn't what's going to happen in the coming years. No two sales curves are identical, and they're rarely even similar. If I had to guess, then based on what's typical for Nintendo systems I'd make the following lifetime estimates for the Switch:

U.S.: 35M
Europe: 30M
Japan: 20M (maybe 25M if it gets significant price reductions soon)
RoW: 5M

Total: 90M

Of course, it's still very early and the Switch could indeed see significant growth in the future, or it could peak this year. We don't really know yet. It just depends on what Nintendo has in the pipeline regarding major software releases (Pokemon Gen VIII will be the big one this year), price cuts, and, possibly, hardware revisions.

The usual great post, thanks for the info.

Could you please make the "rightly aligned all regions" graph comparing PS2, Wii, PS4 and Switch in it and if possible have dotted lines for the remaining time in the market you expect for PS4 and Switch?

And on agreement with Rol, make it launch day, doesn't cut anything, because long term those fluctuation won't impact much.