The_Liquid_Laser said:
I've been predicting Switch would become the best selling console of all time for a while now. People are underestimating how many third party games the Switch will have. They are also overestimating the effect of Western AAA third parties compared to all of the other third party games. Switch is going to have a massive third party library, but it will miss lots of the big names that get mentioned most often. I am betting quantity will beat quality (or budget). |
That's not going to happen, though. If the Switch was going to become the best selling console ever, it would be above PS2. And not the way it is presented in the OP, but country launches aligned, which it is not. It will either have to sell like the PS2 late in its life, which means incredible legs, or like the DS, which means a shit ton of sales for the next 3 years. For the PS2 path, it would need to sell 100M+ by the time the Switch 2 arrives, and then 60M+ afterwards. Looking at DS, it shipped 35M+ after being on the market for ~2 years + 1 month. The Switch will probably match it. However, after another year, it had shipped another 29M+ units. Then, the following year it shipped another 31M+ units. 28M+ the next. Switch isn't coming close to that. Well, maybe if Nintendo drops the price to $199 when Pokemon hits.
And while Switch will still sell fine after the PS5 hits, it will definitely not be the hot new piece of kit anymore, and will most likely be on a natural downward slope soon after. The PS5 and XB2 will also illustrate an even larger gap in performance compared to the home consoles and hybrid Switch. This may or may not have an impact on the public perception of price vs value when it comes to the Switch. My guess is not much, but it will probably push Nintendo to turn their focus to a coming (more powerful) Switch 2, which will undoubtedly lead to decline in Switch releases from them.
Last edited by thismeintiel - on 31 January 2019
