Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

[potato_hamster]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

potato_hamster said:

Ohh this, is.... Wow.

... you know Sony and Microsoft are releasing new console that are going to making porting to the Switch even more difficult than in it is now, right? Even now Switch ports are mostly all limited to games that aren't very resource intensive. Why on earth would this actually get better?

zorg1000 already gave an excellent answer to this.  But I would like to add that Switch by far the best selling platform in Japan right now.  That means it is the default platform for 95% of Japanese games currently in development.  These developers are not even questioning if their game should come to Switch.  Instead they are asking, "is it even worth it to port to a Sony/Microsoft platform?"  In very many cases that answer will be "no". 

Switch is going to have a ton of third party exclusives when all is said and done.  Sure most of these exclusives will be indie or Japanese, but they will still be third party exclusives.

Wait, why are you putting so much emphasis on Japan? As well as the Switch is selling there, it still represents less than 25% of Switch sales. Still A Nintendo/handheld console getting "95%" of Japanese games is the status quo.  It was the same for the DS, the same for the Vita, the same for the PSP, and so on. It would be surprising if the Switch didn't get the vast majority of Japanese games on its platform. Why should anyone care when considering overall sales? What difference does that make? What percentage of those Japanese games are released outside of Japan? How many of them sell more than 500K copies outside of Japan? Look how many Japanese games were released on the Vita in 2018 if you need to put in perspective how little that matters for overall platform sales. For example, why should  a prospective buyer care at all if the next game from the makers of "Tokyo Xanadu" or the hundreds of other developers like them doesn't come to a Playstation or Xbox next time around? How many people is that actually going to sway into buying a Switch? If the answer to that isn't "tens of millions of people" then it really doesn't matter.

At the end of the day, It doesn't matter how many third party exclusives the Switch has, it matters how many third party exclusives that pushes a prospective buyer into buying one. Indies and Japanese games don't exactly have a great track record of leading to world-wide sales. If they did, the Vita would have been FAR more successful than it was. At the end of the day, the Switch is going to get less and less third party system sellers after Sony and MS release new consoles, and that's all that really matters.

Last edited by potato_hamster - on 23 January 2019