Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

zorg1000 said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

zorg1000 already gave an excellent answer to this.  But I would like to add that Switch by far the best selling platform in Japan right now.  That means it is the default platform for 95% of Japanese games currently in development.  These developers are not even questioning if their game should come to Switch.  Instead they are asking, "is it even worth it to port to a Sony/Microsoft platform?"  In very many cases that answer will be "no". 

Switch is going to have a ton of third party exclusives when all is said and done.  Sure most of these exclusives will be indie or Japanese, but they will still be third party exclusives.

Japanese developers care for more than just Japan though. For bigger games and western focused games, the Playstation brand will likely still be their go to choice and since it's so easy to port to Xbox, it will likely get a large percentage of those games as well and Switch will get the ones that can feasibly be ported to it.

Where Switch will truly shine is in the medium sized titles. Many of these games were cross-gen between Vita/PS3/PS4 up until a year or so ago, 8n a couple years that will transition to NSW/PS4/PS5.

Also many of studios who made 3DS exclusives will likely transition to Switch.

We are basically saying the same thing.  The 5% of Japanese games that don't come to Switch will be higher budget games.  If the next new Final Fantasy or Resident Evil doesn't come to Switch then it won't surprise me much.  Most Japanese games have a small-medium budget though.  It is mostly Western developers that are known for cutting edge graphics and huge budgets.

Also all the developers that were making games for 3DS and Vita or cross-gen Vita/PS3/PS4, all of these games will come to Switch (as you said).  Any game which sells 4m+ in Japan will come to Switch like Dragon Quest or the next Monster Hunter.  Lots and lots of Japanese games are coming to Switch.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 23 January 2019