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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.

We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...

According to VGC Switch sold 3'4M in Europe in 2017 and it seems is on pace to 4'8M in 2018. That would be a 41% growth YOY in Europe. Knowing UK and France numbers already i find it very difficult to be true.

On the other side, if my maths are correct, Switch is going to be around 1'2M (365k+392k+ around 440k = 1'2M) in USA in December with a week left according to VGC, so maybe finishing the year around 1'4-1'5M. That seems too low.

As for the rest of the world (not USA+EU+JP markets), Switch did 1'6M in 2017 and is alrady around 2'9M in 2018 with a week left. That's a 81% growth YOY (even with a week left).

My guess: USA is going to be undertracked around 500k at least (probably more), EU is going to be overtracked by around 500-600k (at least, too), and ROTW i really don't know anything here how it works, but a 85-90% growth YOY is reaaaaally a lot, so i won't be surprised if it's overtracked too.

For PS4 numbers....well, it seems it only needs around 500-600K in the last week (and maybe some tweaking in VGC numbers) to be on par with official numbers.

I agree with you on America/Europe, one is over and the other under but they cancel each other out.

RotW however could possibly correct. Like I said in last weeks thread, it didn't release until late in 2017 in certain South American & Asian countries.

For example, it launched in South Korea on December 1 and did over 100k by the end of 2017. If it did 100k in 1 month than what did it do in the following 12? Is 250-300k out of the question, a 150-200% increase.

Yup, i remember your comment, that's why i added Argentina.....

And yes, US and EU will probably cancel each out. I was expecting myself 2'1-2'3M in US in December, o I expect 0'6-0'8M more, and in Europe I expect 4'1-4'2M for the year, so, probably 0'6-0'7M less.

If ROTW is ok, then Switch should be around 16'8M by the end of the year according to VGC. I expected 16'3M from months, like i discussed numerous times here, so if it end, i'm only around 500k off, i will buy it.