AlbiNecroxz said:
colafitte said:
Those european numbers for Switch are really weird though. I still think VGC is overtracking big time Switch in Europe.
We had, with a week left, 15% growth YOY in France (we know it has to be 24% in the end), 10% growth YOY in UK (we know it has to be 20% in the end) and VGC is showing a 17% growth YOY in Germany already (we don't know official data yet here) but VGC is showing a whooping 34% growth YOY in all Europe with that week left of the year. Is that even possible when the 3 biggest markets....by far, are around 10-15%, and all Europe around 34%???. So what then? in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, .... is a 50-60% growth YOY? It has to be if in Europe is so big the growth...
According to VGC Switch sold 3'4M in Europe in 2017 and it seems is on pace to 4'8M in 2018. That would be a 41% growth YOY in Europe. Knowing UK and France numbers already i find it very difficult to be true.
On the other side, if my maths are correct, Switch is going to be around 1'2M (365k+392k+ around 440k = 1'2M) in USA in December with a week left according to VGC, so maybe finishing the year around 1'4-1'5M. That seems too low.
As for the rest of the world (not USA+EU+JP markets), Switch did 1'6M in 2017 and is alrady around 2'9M in 2018 with a week left. That's a 81% growth YOY (even with a week left).
My guess: USA is going to be undertracked around 500k at least (probably more), EU is going to be overtracked by around 500-600k (at least, too), and ROTW i really don't know anything here how it works, but a 85-90% growth YOY is reaaaaally a lot, so i won't be surprised if it's overtracked too.
For PS4 numbers....well, it seems it only needs around 500-600K in the last week (and maybe some tweaking in VGC numbers) to be on par with official numbers.
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I think you're right about US market, 1.2m is too law if Benji is correct. Europe it's overtracked but I think 500k overtracking units is too much, maybe 300k is a right guess. RotW who knows. Btw I think 1.6/1.7m WW is probably the best guess after all
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If you think EU is only 300k overtracked that would still be around 4'5M and a 32% growth YOY. With its two biggest markets around 20-24% growth, and Germany seemingly in the same pace, that growth for Europe in total is still too much.
