Intrinsic said:
colafitte said:
Yeah, you're right on point 1, so let me correct it. If PS4 receives a 100$ discount (it has to be this much of a discount, if not i guess they won't bother and they won't made any discounts), it will sell again 17-18M in 2019, if it not receives any kind of discount in 2019, PS4 will sell 15-16M.
TLOU II, i can guarantee you is going to be way bigger than GOW and Spiderman. TLOU is the most popular mainstream game Sony has, by far. TLOU remastered must have sold 10M only on PS4 (more than the original on PS3) and it was just a port/remaster. Its popularity is huge and everytime there is a news about TLOU there is this anticipitacion in number of views on videos, number of comments in threads, news, etc that any other PS exclusive haven't match ever. TLOU II is going to be the biggest and most succesful PS launch when it launches and i'm pretty sure it will beat Spiderman and GOW records of sales in its first 3 days. As for the rest i was naming just a few. We still don't know what games will be during 2nd half of the year but as of right now, PS4 still has the best library of games any console can offer right now, so people will still want to buy a console in 2019.
Like i said, PS4 lineup this year is probably going to be as good as 2017 and 2018. And when i say PS5 and next box are not yet in the horizon, i mean "officially". When PS5 becames officialy announced is when PS4 sales will start to drop more seriously, but until then??, just a normal drop YOY. What i'm pretty sure is that without any official PS5 yet in 2019, PS4 won't fall from 18M to 13M, even without pricecuts, that't simply just too much. No PS console has drop so much YOY without a new console officially coming so it won't happen. 15-16M should be the lowest anyone must expect PS4 doing in 2019.
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I have some somewhat radical views on these.....
- TLOU2 and DS will not come in 2019. They will come in the launch window of the PS5 (within the first 6 months) and will be cross platform. In 2019 what we will et as exclusives from sony will be Days Gone and Dreams.
- PS5 will launch in March 2020. Last time sony did a march launch was with the PS2. This allows them launch at $499 and then drop its price to $399 in time for the holidays 2020. Early adopters will be willing to pay that much for the system.
- Do not expect a price drop from sony this year or at least anytime before PSX 2019 (there will be the usual $199 promotional pricing in november). For sony to drop the price permanently (and probably during their PSX 2019 PS5 reveal event) the PS4 will have to be tracking at around 2014 (14M) type numbers for all of 2019. Only then will sony feel it necessary to drop their price. But if its tracking to hit like 16M in sales for 2019 sony will not drop the price until the PS5 is released.
- PS5 will be $500 worth of hardware, so even selling at $499 sony will just be breaking even. But its price will be dropped to $399 within the first 6 months to a year of its release, this is also based on how much the next Xbox costs. If MS also makes a $500 box then both will not drop price early. Sony will be willing to take a considerable loss on the hardware ($100) especially fr the first year when it probably will not sell more than 15M of them. This possibility is probably why sony has been very resistant to dropping the price of the PS4 now and also something that having sold over 100M PS4s (alon with all the PS+ subs they are amassing) by the time of the PS5 launch affords them.
- Having a game like TLOU2 as a PS5 launch title is crucial to all this.
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They are, "in fact", some radical opinions....
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1. TLOU 2 is coming maaaan, i can feel it. Sony needs a huge blockbuster 1st party game for the holiday season. They always have one, and it's not going to be Dreams or Ghost of Tsushima, so it will be Death Stranding and/or The Last of Us Part II and i bet in the latter.
2. I was team early 2020 for PS5 too, but i think Sony will wait until 2020 to announce PS5 and launch at the end of the yeat to maximize PS4 hardware and software sales. There's still a lot of sales on PS4 life.
3. They will make a price cut if they're feeling they sell less than 16M, and because i'm not betting it will sell less than 16M, consequently probably won't exist a price cut either, but it could go either way.
4. After seeing what PS4 was capable to do, i'm not expecting PS4 launching anything more than 400$ and there won't be any price cuts after launch. Price cuts during 1st or 2nd year of life are bad press and bad vibes. It makes it seem like the console is not doing well and you need to cut the price. So because I expect PS5 to be even more succesful than PS4 at lauch, i don't expect anything of this.
5. TLOU II will inevitably come to PS5, but just after having sold 15M already on PS4 after more than a year in the market.
But yeah, your predictions are bold and fun. Nothing wrong with them! We'll see who is right.
