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Amnesia said:

I have added the 2017 Q4 to see the whole curve : it needs to be ~33% higher than the final spot of the blue curve (15,06M --> 20M) by March 30th 2019.

It is already 26% higher by today (8,12M from 6,42M). It is done. I will put half of my money on Nintendo Share, if they confirm 20M the share will explode.

Basically if Nintendo can close this 7% gap (33%-26%) in the next 5 weeks, it's a done deal for 20mil. I can't see how Switch could sell less in Q4 2018 than Q4 2017.

Smash is like a second black friday for Nintendo. Next 2 weeks are crucial to understand if they'll make it. With Cyber Monday and Smash release numbers.