kopstudent89 on 06 December 2018
| HylianSwordsman said: Come on Smash! Don't choke on the last day! One more day like this and you're the new record! I'm not saying I think Smash is guaranteed to get 2 million FW, but rather that the data we have shows a trend towards higher Switch ratios closer to 1:2000 before digital, and that this would suggest that 2 million is possible, and that Smash would have to actually be a slight outlier to even get as low as 1.5 million. Maybe major games get lower? But Odyssey got 1:2232. Maybe only casual games get higher? Yet Minecraft was 1:744 and 1-2-Switch was 1:585. Honestly there's not much of a pattern to what games get higher or lower, aside from that most of the under 1:1000 games were launch games, and the last game to only get 1:1000 was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (with 1:1075), which was a couple months after launch. Since then the only game under 1:1500 was Minecraft and Splatoon 2's 1:689, but Splatoon 2 was also pretty early, first 4 months. Assuming Smash isn't some crazy low outlier, it'll probably get somewhere between 1:1500 (as Xenoblade Chronicles 2 did with 1:1504) and 1:2500 (as Super Mario Party did with 1:2460). If it super choked and got no points tomorrow, that would mean it gets somewhere between 1.35 million and 2.25 million. If it has a kickass last day and gets to 950 points, that becomes a range of 1.425 million and 2.375 million. So lets go ahead and say that 1.35-2.375 is the expected range barring a major anomaly. Of course, this is based on Media Create, which doesn't track digital, and if digital is approximately 15% of total sales, which wouldn't be too outlandishly high or low for a Nintendo game, that would put the total sales at 1.5 million to 2.8 million (1.35 is about 85% of 1.5, 2.375 about 85% of 2.8). Right in the middle of that with a 1:2000 ratio would put physical+digital sales at 2.1 million for 900 points and 2.235 million for 950 points. So if the outcome is slightly lower than halfway on the expected range it's still 2 million FW physical+digital. That said 2 million FW still just sounds crazy high for a game in Japan, even a Switch blockbuster, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's only 1.5 million, nor would I be surprised if Media Create shows 1.35 million since it only shows physical. The main point of all this math is that it would take a major outlier for Smash FW in Japan to be below a million FW. Not even that is all that crazy though, as there have been quite a few outliers, but it's been a while since we had one and the odds are in Smash's favor to Smash everyone's expectations. |
Ratios are not always a guaranteed thing. They probably give you a range of possible outcomes, in this case anything from 700k-1.2m is possible.
That said looking at how Smash has historically performed in Japan, I think 800k is probably a good estimation. I hope it does above 1m, but it's never happened even on the Wii and 3DS which both did below 1m. The 1.5m some of y'all are predicting is wild especially on this installbase, and the 2 million some people are throwing around is crazy, and will undermine actual First week sales. Trust even 800k is a huge first week for Smash
