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Plus, ever since Halo and Gears of War regressed considerably in popularity due to the rise of CoD, Battlefield, and other FPS  franchises as the premier, go to first person shooters, Microsoft just does not have a franchise with the widespread, maintsream, truly blockbuster appeal beyond just their dedicated core audience like the other two do.
(MineCraft doesn't count since that's on everything.)
At this point, an exclusive franchise that's A-tier for Microsoft would be a B-tier for Sony and Nintendo. 
They really have to double down on 1st party if they want to expand their audience and appeal. They can't just count on the unlikely chance of Sony fucking up the PS5 reveal like they did themselves with the Xbox One. 

Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019