Shadow1980 said:
The actual official sales (as in actual sold to customers, not shipments) for the PS4 has been: 2018: 19.5M This would put the PS4 at close to 125M lifetime. As for the Switch, I'm averse to making long-term estimates of yearly sales this early. It has yet to get a major price cut or hardware revision, and is still missing major titles like the first Gen VIII Pokemon game (due next year). Its hard to say whether its lifetime sales curve will more closely resemble, say, the 3DS or have a more typical sales curve for a Nintendo home console. However, my current lifetime sales guess assumes a maximum of 30M in the U.S., 25M in Europe, 20-25M in Japan, and 5-10M in other regions. I'm assuming it at least continues to outpace the 3DS by a healthy margin in the West, and does at most equal to the 3DS in Japan, depending on if it starts to catch up to it, which it has not so far. In fact, it's sold 45% fewer units so far this year in than what the 3DS sold in 2012, though to be fair the 3DS was absolutely killing it in Japan in 2012 (it was the third-best year for any system ever in Japan, following the DS's performances in 2006 & 2007) thanks in large part to the continued effects of the 2011 price drop as well as short-term boosts provided by the launches of the 3DS XL and Animal Crossing: New Leaf. The Switch meanwhile still costs substantially more than the 3DS did at this point in its life and has had no major hardware revisions. It still has the potential to catch up to the 3DS in Japan, but right now it's running a significant and growing LTD deficit that currently stands at about 2.7M units. As for the XBO, there's really no way to make accurate guesses on worldwide sales without MS providing any information. The only truly accurate figures we have is for the U.S. & Japan, but those regions alone don't tell us the whole story. Assuming the U.S. represents 55-60% of the XBO's sales, it's probably sitting at most close to 40M units lifetime right now, maybe as few as 36M. At most, I see it selling roughly 60M units lifetime globally, though until MS gives us actual official shipment tallies we'll never know for sure. |
Very informative.
I've discussed PS4 lifetime sales with some friends and I'll direct them to this post for info. You're an expert. Thanks!
