I'm thinking down.
They have no new hardware unlike last year.
They have no major exclusive of a beloved and Iconic brand like Pokemon or Spider-Man.
Plus all major third party games, they got the marketing deal for like Tomb Raider, Battlefield 5, and Fallout 76 all seem to be under performing. While Sony has Black Ops 4 and the juggernaut itself, Red Dead Redemption 2 as marketing deals with the latter being bundle with PS4 Pros.
Xbox got stuck with the worst marketing deals this year. Not that they ever really get them ahead anyway.