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The fact that Nintendo made the selections almost entirely kills Geno's chances off completely then. Edelgard's as good as confirmed, gotta have a new FE rep to push Three Houses next year.

I don't think 3rd parties have a good chance of getting in (Besides maybe Jeanne as a Bayo echo, but I think she'll be distributed separately as free DLC close to Bayo 3's release; possibly a SMT5 character nearer to that game's release) unless Square is sending another exclusive game to Nintendo; Why would someone from Kingdom Hearts, Persona or even Banjo Kazooie get in if those games aren't coming to Switch? It goes directly against Nintendo's interests to have them in.