Is Nintendo Switch really a success?

[curl-6]

DélioPT said:

curl-6 said:

By the time PS5/Nextbox arrive, Switch will be significantly cheaper, have accumulated a massive library of killer games, and have a monopoly on non-mobile portable gaming, all of which should easily offset the hybrid concept no longer being new. We'll be talking about a $200 Switch vs a probably $400 PS5, so in addition to being totally different products, they'll also be serving totally different price ranges.

My guess is 200$, too.

"massive library of killer games"
Aren't you mistaking it for the PS4?? :) joking!

Personally, i highly doubt that Switch will be able to offer that many reasons to buy the system. But more important than that, is how much leftover appeal it's system sellers will have by then.
For example, while it took Mario Galaxy, 5 years to sell close to 12M copies, Odyssey sold 10M in less than a year; Twilight Princess sold 8.7M in six years, yet BOtW sold around 10M in 1 year and 7 months; Mario Kart 7 sold around 15M in pretty much 7 years, while MK8 Deluxe is near 10M in a year and a half.
This is a very atypical situation for Nintendo software - that usually pulls off these numbers throughout the lifetime of their respective consoles.

There are other incoming titles that may or not follow this pattern, so i'll refrain from saying anything more. 

We also can't forget how Nintendo has been bad at supporting their consoles at the end of their life cycle.

400$ vs 200$ is no longer the big difference it used to be.

Even if we reach the year of the introduction for PS5 and XB2 and things go your way, there are two things that aren't a certainty: what will Sony and MS offer? Will have Switch expanded it's userbase, becoming a primary console for that market, or was it just a "it was good while it lasted" situation?

That Nintendo's Switch software is selling more strongly than on prior consoles is a point in its favour, not against it. All the evidence points to its evergreen titles remaining strong sellers for years to come, including ones that are still to arrive like Animal Crossing, Smash, Gen 8 Pokemon, and more that we don't even know about yet.

And double the price is double the price whether it's 2006 or 2020.

Sony/MS will almost certainly offer what they always have; just their last system but with more power. That will not disrupt the Switch as it sells for entirely different reasons, just as the release of a new sports car won't unduly affect sales of motorbikes.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 08 October 2018