Will the Switch surpass Xbox One sales by the end of the generation ?

[Alby_da_Wolf]

zorg1000 said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Given current gap, current weekly NS lead and Xmas boosts, plus other big games launches, it should definitely be possible. Those saying beginning of 2020 or even end of 2019 should do their maths better (XBOne should really plummet to make it possible), but H2 2020 should be not only possible, but also not too difficult.

Why is late 2019 or early 2020 unrealistic?

End of 2017

NS, 13.1 million

XBO, 35.6 million

 

2018 estimates

NS, 17-18 million (LTD, 30-31m)

XBO, 8-9 million (LTD, ~44m)

 

2019 estimates

NS, 20 million (LTD, 50-51m)

XBO, 6-7 million (LTD, 50-51m)

 

Even if I'm slightly overestimating Switch, it's still entirely possible that it passes XBO in Q1/Q2 2020.

I proceeded differently, considering the current LTD XBOne lead and weekly NS lead, multiplied the latter by the weeks from now until the end of 2020 and added some millions as extra NS lead for BF and Xmas periods: it was enough to fill the gap and then outsell XBOne by a good margin, but taking away the whole second half of 2020 it becomes more difficult, unless XBOne sales plummet, and taking away the whole 2020 NS should fill a 19M gap in less than one year and a half. XBOne sales will probably plummet in 2020, but it still has most probably two Xmases of good sales left, so it has good chances of keeping the lead through the whole  2019. Then, during 2020, unless XBOne lead will have become very thin, it will be more likely for NS to fill the gap at any time after Summer. The sooner, the bigger NS lead will be at the end of 2020. Obviously a bigger hit on XBOne sales in 2020, for example due to the announcement of next gen XB, will make it easier an overtaking in the first half of 2020, but for it to happen even before it would take MS to stupidly damage heavily the last Xmas of good sales XBOne has most probably left, the 2019 one.