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curl-6 on 09 July 2018
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DélioPT said:
curl-6 said:

Did the DS stop selling when PS3 and 360 came out?

Did the 3DS stop selling when PS4/Xbone came out?

The Switch does not depend on AAA third party games or being graphically competitive drive sales, so PS5/Nextbox won't really affect it. The only thing that can derail the Switch now is if Nintendo themselves fail to maintain its momentum with price cuts, hardware revisions, and killer app software.

I wouldn't be so sure that PS5 and NextXobx won't affect sales.

From sales data we can see that Switch isn't really stealing costumers from it's competitors. So, the most logical conclusion seems to be that those who are buying a Switch are old PS4/XB1 users - who have been given enough time to enjoy their consoles and are open to something new.

Now, that something new is, so far, annuling the graphical and catalogue difference.
When XB2 and PS5 arrive, seeing as their fanbase remains loyal, what might just happen is that Switch's attrative concept is no longer news and most likely, won't be able to keep receiving ports.

What happens then?
My guess: It's potential is cut short because a) Switch won't have really entered the declined stage to make way for a new iteration; b) even if Switch Pro happens, it will split the userbase, making the console able to keep receiving ports, to small in (actual) userbase.

As zorg has pointed out, the sales tend to indicate that Switch is not directly competing with PS4 and Xbox One, and therefore wouldn't compete directly with PS5 and Nextbox either. Furthermore, Switch sales aren't being driven by AAA third party ports and it's barely getting any as it is, so it won't matter much if those stop.

Shiken said:
curl-6 said:

Did the DS stop selling when PS3 and 360 came out?

Did the 3DS stop selling when PS4/Xbone came out?

The Switch does not depend on AAA third party games or being graphically competitive drive sales, so PS5/Nextbox won't really affect it. The only thing that can derail the Switch now is if Nintendo themselves fail to maintain its momentum with price cuts, hardware revisions, and killer app software.

This is all true...if the Switch starts getting treated more like a handheld and not a console it will still do just fine.

 

However the idea of current gen console games on the go will die withe the release of PS5/next box unless we see a NEW Switch that will still get those games at a scaled down level.

 

It is not a question of whether or not it can still do well.  It is a question of whether or not it can keep the very foundation of being a true hybrid console when the time comes for hardware upgrades.

It's not only portables that have continued selling after stronger competitors arrived. SNES didn't stop selling when PS1/Saturn released, PS1 didn't stop selling when the Dreamcast released, PS2 didn't stop selling when the 360 came out.

Switch already isn't getting many current gen AAA games. It doesn't have COD, GTA, Far Cry, Assassin's Creed, it's not getting Cyberpunk 2077 or Red Dead. And yet it's still selling okay, because AAA third party games are not its selling point.