I tried to do some very rough maths to see what impact Smash and Pokemon should have to make these 20 millions possible.
According to vg chartz:
Switch sold 4'440'000 units in five months in 2018. it's 888'000 units per month. To do the math, i consider these like regular months without big releases. (http://www.vgchartz.com/article/276881/year-on-year-sales-amp-market-share-charts-june-2-2018/
Between early october and december 2017, Switch sold 6'800'000 units (2'266'666 / month). It includes holiday season, black friday and SMO release.
So now if we multiply Switch regular months sales by the number of regular months it's:
888'000 * 9 = 7'992'000 Units, We can say 8'000'000. I counted from April 2018 to September 2018 (6 months) and from January 2019 to March 2019 (3 months, end of FY 2018)
Let's say we add 1 milion of uncertainty, the total sale for 9 regular months is 9'000'000 Units. (1'000'000/month)
Soooooo it leaves 11'000'000 units to sale in three holiday months, 3'666'666/month (October/november/december). it's more or less 4'000'000 units more than last holiday season
It represents a 60% increase compared to last year's holiday. I'm talking about sold through and not shipped.
Do yo think Smash and pokemon will be able to move this amount of systems? I think it could be very difficult to reach the target
