Aura7541 said:
yvanjean said:
Argument #1: Prior generation when you bought a PS1/PS2/PS3 and a mid-gen new consoles version came out it was only slimmer and almost no power upgrade over the original. PS4 Pro owners are made up of PS4 upgrade and new to the consoles. All of these people are less likely to buy a PS5 right away. Therefore, you've never had PS1.5/PS2.5/PS3.5 like we do now with the PS4 Pro and XB1X. We have never seen the impact this will have on next gen sales.
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Already argued against this point in the 3rd paragraph of this comment and the 5th paragraph of this comment.
Also, show me empirical evidence (e.g. a survey) that PS4 Pro owners are less likely to buy a PS5 right away. Otherwise, this is mere conjecture. Just because we have never seen the impact this will have on next gen sales doesn't automatically mean the results will be different. It may not have that much of an impact at all and there are some possible reasons as I already stated. For example, the PS4 launched with weak 1st party software. A strong 1st party launch lineup for the PS5 would be an advantage in favor of the PS5.
Well all of your apparent counter arguments seem more to me like you are stating your personal views as facts. Remember that this entire thread is conjecture and speculation, we are missing the most important piece of information release date for PS5. PS5 launch seem more like the PS3 launch (where Sony fan were still content with their PS2) there won't be the same level of excitement to make the jump (Ps3 to Ps4) and Sony fan will be hesitant to leave their platform of choice the massively popular PS4. On top of that you had in mid-gen refresh that Sony did to the PS4, return of Nintendo has a power house( WiiU being a complete failure), popularity of mobile market and there simply no way Microsoft can have a worst launch than they did with Xb1. Also, Sony manage amazing result when their competition were struggling. That won't be the same for PS5.
yvanjean said:
Argument #2: Sony ecosystem, your right with Sony is growing their ecosystem. But, unlike PS3 to PS4 jump were you needed a PS4 to play next gen PS4 game. You will still be able to play the new next gen games on older consoles. These game are going to be the best looking on the PS4 Pro. Will there be consoles PS5 exclusives that can't be played on PS4 PRo in the first two-three years that not tied to some new controller???? If you wanted to play the new game you had to buy a PS4, they quickly drop PS3 support for next gen games that will not be the case for next gen unless PS5 release in 2021 or 2022. Assuming they release PS5 Holiday 2019 or spring 2020 the PS4 will still be on the market, you will have the choice between getting a PS4 for dirt cheap, Discounted PS4 Pro or upgrade the 4k graphic and performance with PS5. That won't be a 7 year jump in technology. Also, your digital library is going to convert to the PS5, there even less pressure to make the jump. All of these great consumer friendly options will result in less sales of PS5 compared to PS4.
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You mean cross-gen games and across the PS4, PS4 Pro, and PS5, the PS5 version will look the best. You'll likely see higher resolution textures, higher native resolution, and higher & more stable framerate. Next gen games can only be played on next gen consoles.
If power, graphics and resolutions mattered so much the Nintendo Switch would not be a success right now.
As for the rest, your point can be easily refuted with the 3rd paragraph of this comment, the 3rd paragraph of this comment, and the 5th paragraph of this comment. Your assertion that it won't be a 7 year jump in technology can be easily countered with the 2nd paragraph of this comment, the last paragraph of this comment, and the 11th paragraph of this comment.
Lastly, backwards compatibility has its greatest impact at the beginning of a console's lifecycle because at launch, the new console's library is still in its infancy. If PS4 BC happens, then PS5 owners will have an instant library to start off with, perhaps with the added benefit of PS4 Pro-esque enhancements. Heck, there may be several games that current PS4 owners wanted to play, but never got a chance to due to time constraints. However, backwards compatibility covers that and people who did not own a PS4 (e.g. XB1-only gamers) can also buy a PS5 and still be able to play PS4 games. The transferring of library maintains goodwill with the consumers and backwards compatibility helps maintain software sales, which helps the developers as well as Sony since they get a platform cut. In addition, Sony can put some marketing behind the PS5 enhancements which will give the PS4 games and the PS5 more consumer awareness.
There not much of Xb1-only gamers out there for Sony to steal from even I own a PS4. You know what's going to be much cheaper than a PS5 when it launch that potential Sony customer would want a PS4 Pro. Ps5 will lose some sales to their cheaper last gen consoles. Ps3 to PS4 was the longest between a refresh and everyone was ready for the next gen. That not the case for PS5. You also made the argument "You'll likely see higher resolution textures, higher native resolution, and higher & more stable framerate." but Sony as advertised PS4 Pro has 4k ready machine. The actual jump in resolution is 4k to 4k. PS4 Pro did not sell gang buster because there were no major improvement over the PS4. It's going to be the same thing with PS4 Pro to PS5.
yvanjean said:
Argument #3: Software, Microsoft could release a cheaper and slightly more powerful XB2 on the same day as PS5 and it wouldn't matter unless they have the software to backup their new console. Phil Spencer focus is on powerful hardware and software to back it up, this plan will take time and Xb2 won't be ready till 2020 or 2021. If sony release PS5 in 2019 they will probably have a one year lead on Microsoft next gen console.
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At least you agree that on average, the XB1 is cheaper than the PS4 for much of this generation, not on par.
Except when it mattered the first year of this gen, Xb1 used to be more expensive until they drop the Kinect and gain $50 advantage. I wasn't too happy with the price of the Xb1X, would of been much better if was Cheaper and came bundle with one year of Gamepass.
Also, see the 2nd paragraph of this comment. Sony's 1st party studios will not have to completely revamp their engines since they will stick to the x86 architecture. Guerrilla Games may be able to get Horizon 2 within the PS5's first year since they already have the assets ready and it's not a brand new IP. What if Polyphony Digital release Gran Turismo 7 as one of the PS5's 1st party launch titles? At the beginning of this gen, Forza 5 went unopposed as Driveclub was delayed and GT Sport didn't release until last year.
Microsoft, on the other hand, might be a different story. Will The Coalition and 343 release another game each before the new consoles come out? If so, then how long will it take for them to release their games after the next ones? For instance, if they release their games in 2019, then an optimistic 3-year dev cycle will put their next gen games' release date in 2022.
Rumors are that Microsoft software solution apparently was to focus on their studios on top of acquiring PlayGround Games and grow these studios so that they can have multiple project. Playground Games is currently working on Forza Horizon and Fable 4. Increase the staff at Coalition and 343 so that both studios have more then one project other then Halo 6 and Gears 5.
Time will tell but Microsoft need to do much more...https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-06/microsoft-boosts-video-game-investment-as-focus-shifts-to-software. Microsoft need to do much better they are far behind when compared to Sony and Nintendo. They are fully aware of this fact.
yvanjean said:
The casual market have gone from playing game on consoles to playing game on Mobile. If the trends continue Sony will lose some market to Mobile/tablet gaming rather then lose it to Xb2. Consoles sales overall will take a hit to Mobile/Tablets.
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Mobile has greatly risen this generation and yet, the PS4 is not slowing down. In addition, PS4 software dollar sales continue to perform strongly according to NPD. You need to provide empirical evidence to prove what you're asserting is correct. Otherwise, this is just a pivot to something off-topic.
Your chart doesn't tell me anything as it doesn't show a trend. It's only a snapshot of which platforms developers are interested in developing games for. Is the overall trend going down? Is the overall trend going up? Is there actually evidence that suggests developers are dropping console development in favor of mobile development? Do developers say that their focus on console development has gone down because of increased focus on mobile development?
Again, much of your response are retreads of which I already refuted. However, you have not made adequate counterarguments which is why you continue to make the same points, but with different coats of paint. You are still responding for the sake of responding.
Technology we'll eventually surpass the need for a consoles, Switch and Smartphones/Tablets is an early example of change in trends. Eventually Smart TV will all have powerful micro PC and you will only need controller to play games. In the past people talk about unrealistic growth of cloud gaming but just look how much they've closed the gap between mobile and consoles to see where tech is going.
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