Can the Switch realistically surpass XBOX One's sales figures?

[zorg1000]

Helloplite said:

Hear me out: We all know that the Switch has been consistently outselling XBOX One, to the point that it now has nearly 40% of XBOX One's total sales, in little over a year since it launched. This is incredible, and provided Nintendo kept the same pace, and XBOX One ceased to sell at all, it would be likely that Nintendo would top its sales within 14-18 months time. 

 

Of course, the above scenario is impossible. With XBOX One X, Microsoft has managed to resurrect the platform's sales, and they could well perform much higher than anticipated in 2018. Nintendo, on the other hand, would pretty much have to surpass their first year, which sounds impossible at this moment.

 

I understand that eventually, given current trends, Switch could outsell the XBOX. But if this happens at the twilight of this generation, then it would be a Pyrrhic victory. 

 

Will the Switch surpass XBOX One (vanilla, S, and X) sales?

You really need to flesh out your reasons because it comes off more like something you hope rather than putting any real thought into it. Why is the scenario of your first paragraph impossible?

 

How has the X model resurrected the platform? Yeah, the X model+PUBG releasing at the end of last year and the $50 discounts in Feb have gotten it off to a solid start this year but that doesnt really mean much for the year overall.

XBO is currently up by ~280k YoY in the first 11 weeks according to this site, even if the gap continues to grow all it takes is for XBO to be down YoY during the holidays to erase that lead and considering MS likely does not have a new model to push sales like 2017 did than its very possible to see a moderate drop in Nov/Dec.

XBO has sold ~8 million each year for the last 4 years and there is little reason to expect it to deviate from that to a huge extent.

 

 

As for Switch, what exactly makes it impossible for it to be up YoY? Doing 13 million is amazing for a first year but in general its not anything mind blowing. Gameboy, SNES, PS1, PS2, GBA, DS, PSP, 360, Wii, PS3, 3DS & PS4 have all met or exceeded that number in a given year so its far from an impossible goal.

 

 

Either this was a clever April Fools (kudos if thats what it is) or you just dont want Switch to outsell XBO.