I expect a cut to $199 this year, maybe around the time Spider Man comes out. That game, coupled with the official price cut, bundles and special edition consoles will do wonders.
I expect Spider Man and price cut to drop around September, then RDR2 will release end of October and PS4 will stay in pole position for the rest of the year.
For now PS4 is still winning without the heavy weights, but God of War is launching soon...
God of War and Spider-Man, alongside a price drop and smart marketing, could do wonders indeed if the games are well received. Critical reception and word of mouth are pretty big factors now.