UPDATE: February 2nd, 2018
Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their latest shipment figures.
Sony: 9.0m PS4s this quarter, YTD is 16.5m.
Nintendo: 7.23m Switch units this quarter, YTD is 12.12m. 3.00m 3DS units this quarter, YTD is 5.86m. Total: 17.98m.
Nintendo expanded their previous lead of 0.25m to 1.48m. Furthermore, Nintendo increased their forecasts for both Switch and 3DS while Sony's PS4 forecast remained flat.
Sony: 19m PS4s projected for the current fiscal year.
Nintendo: 15m for Switch, up by 1m. 6.4m for 3DS, up by 0.4m. Total: 21.4m.
With a projected lead of 2.4m units based on known data, the PS4 having a comfortable bar to surpass (only needs to ship 2.5m in fiscal Q4) and factoring in PlayStation Vita at ~500k, things are now pointing to a Nintendo win by 1-2m. Since the accuracy of forecasts is very high with only three months left to go in the fiscal year, the probability of a different result is rather low. It looks like Sony's most successful run against Nintendo is coming to an end as Nintendo returns to the #1 position in the video game hardware business.
The user StarDoor has collected all historical data and made estimates for the periods that necessitated it.
Sony has won four years in a row which marks their longest streak in history. Overall, they beat Nintendo only seven times in 23 qualifying fiscal years, so the recent past hasn't been anywhere close to the norm of the Sony vs. Nintendo battle. Fiscal year 2016 saw Sony win by ~11.5m units which constituted their biggest margin of victory in history. Now only one year after setting such a record, it looks like they'll be back to losing again.
Lastly, here's another snapshot of the poll.
Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?
|Sony (by more than 3m)||250||28.18%||
|Sony (between 2-3m more)||50||5.64%||
|Sony (between 1-2m more)||67||7.55%||
|Virtually tied (within 1m of each other)||131||14.77%||
|Nintendo (between 1-2m more)||144||16.23%||
|Nintendo (between 2-3m more)||51||5.75%||
|Nintendo (by more than 3m)||95||10.71%||
|Microsoft (for the lulz)||28||3.16%||
Almost 250 additional votes were casted since the last update that shifted the forecasts of Sony and Nintendo from a Sony win by 2-3m to a virtual tie. The option "Sony by more than 3m" lost three percent points, "Virtually tied" gained one, "Nintendo by 1-2m" gained three, "Nintendo by 2-3m" gained one, "Nintendo by more than 3m" lost one. So overall the results were shifting closer to the eventual reality which is an encouraging sign for the VGC community.