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Smartie900 on 29 January 2018
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thismeintiel said:
Smartie900 said:

This movie has already passed the pre sale tickets of Civil War. The fact that Marvel's making a superhero movie starring a black lead is a huge deal to many people. You're gonna have the typical crowd of people who go to see it because it's a Marvel movie plus the percentage of the audience who just wants to go see it because it has a black lead. I can see this replicating Wonder Woman levels of success if it's really good.

I wouldn't really put too much importance on presales.  I mean, unless you expect this to open higher than the $179M Civil War saw.  Though, I do agree with you.  I could definitely see this thing matching WW's $103M.  I still think $120M+ is kind of a stretch.

I don't expect this to go over $120 million for the first 3 days. That being said, I expect this to have better legs than typical Marvel movies. The typical Marvel movie has a multiplier of 2.5. I think this movie can have one above 2.75. If it opens open to $120 million, the end result will be about $330 million domestically with the multiplier. If it outshines my expectations and performs similarly to Avengers with a multiplier of 3, then the domestic total will be around $360 million. If this movie really goes above and beyond and has a multiplier of 3.5 (similar to Guardians 1), then the domestic total will land at $420 million. My ultimate expectation is about $325 million domestic and $400 million international. $725 million total.