So right now, according to Vgchartz's U.S preorders (8 weeks left until release) MHW (PS4 version) is pretty comparable to other Monster Hunter games sitting at 48,885 (for comparison MH4U was at 112,790 at the same point before release.) You are also underestimating how first-week heavy Monster Hunter's sales are. If the game sells 2 million first week (on PS4) it's not going to sell 6 million lifetime.The game is also likely to sell about half as much in Japan as the best selling handheld titles, based on COMG preorders.
6.5 million on the PS4 is way too high, 2.5-3.5 million is a much more probable bet.
I don't think MHW will outsell MHF3 (and definitely not Freedom Unite's 5.5 million sales.) Whether or not it outsells 4U depends on how well the XBO or PC versions sell, which I don't predict to sell that much (300-500k and 500k-700k respectively.) I think it has a decent chance of outselling X though.
It is going to sell excellently for a console monster hunter game, but "best selling MH of all time" is setting oneself up for disappointment.
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