Nintendo Switch has become the fastest selling video game system of all time in the US

[VideoGameAccountant]

PortisheadBiscuit said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

Quick reply but from reading through the thread, there are two things I want to point out.

Switch's Early Success Means Future Success

The console business is momentum based. Usually, if you get out the door running, you'll have a successful console. Even in situations where the manufacturer turns it around, it's mostly negligible. The 3DS is a good example of that. After a lackluster launch, Nintendo cut the price by $80 which saved the system. Even still, after 7 years it's only sold about 70 million. The GBA sold 80 million despite only getting about 4 years on the market.

Because the Switch is selling so well in Japan and the US, major publishers are going to be rushing to get games on it. We are already seeing this in Japan and it will likely happen very soon in the US. With news that Switch is the fastest selling console, don't be surprised if the next earnings releases from major US publishers mention that they are making games for the Switch.

This is the momentum. A strong selling console builds an install base. The big install base attracts developers who make more games. More games drive the install base. Even though everyone clamors that the Wii didn't have a lot of third party support, it did get a lot of third party games. It was just that developers often treated them as side projects due to "third party games don't sell on Wii." This isn't the case on Switch with DOOM, Skyrim and Sonic Mania (among others) selling well on the Switch. It will get tons of games that will drive the install base. This is the big takeaway that no one is talking about.

Switch Will Outsell PS4 because Europe is not enough

I don't know why people are still claiming PS4 will outsell Switch worldwide? The Switch is outselling the PS4 in Japan (I think it's at around 40-50% of PS4's LTD sales). It's selling faster than the PS4 in the US. Outselling Switch in Europe won't be enough to put PS4 over Switch. The PS4 would have to sell more than Switch there by a greater margin than Switch outsell PS4 in both Japan and the US. It's not going to happen. Look at the 360. It crushed the PS3 in the US but because it couldn't sell in Japan or Europe (outside of the UK), it was outsold by PS3 worldwide. This is the same scenario here. I don't know why people still think PS4 can beat Switch.

Great points! Though I disagree about Switch outselling PS4 WW, Sony infiltrates markets (even outside of Europe) where Nintendo doesn't have a presence. Also Europe + USA (PS4) is a much bigger market than USA + Japan (Switch). I personally see Switch topping out at about 80-85m

The three major video game markets are still Japan, Europe (as a whole) and the US. That's been the case in previous generations and is the same here. The problem is these "other regions" aren't big enough to make up any difference. Another historical example: the Master System actually sold well in South America, but the Master System was still crushed globally by the NES. Selling better in two of the three regions means you'll outsell the other system worldwide. The only way I can see the PS4 outselling the Switch is if the margin is razor thin, and I don't see that happening. Switch is the fastest selling system in the US and is selling faster than the PS2 in Japan (which sales are similar to the DS's). The gap will be too great for Europe and a bunch of other smaller countries making up the difference. It's also clear Nintendo is planning to expand into S. Korea, Hong Kong and China so I doubt we can look at PS4 outselling Switch world wide because of some smaller countries. 

fatslob-:O said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

Switch Will Outsell PS4 because Europe is not enough

I don't know why people are still claiming PS4 will outsell Switch worldwide? The Switch is outselling the PS4 in Japan (I think it's at around 40-50% of PS4's LTD sales). It's selling faster than the PS4 in the US. Outselling Switch in Europe won't be enough to put PS4 over Switch. The PS4 would have to sell more than Switch there by a greater margin than Switch outsell PS4 in both Japan and the US. It's not going to happen. Look at the 360. It crushed the PS3 in the US but because it couldn't sell in Japan or Europe (outside of the UK), it was outsold by PS3 worldwide. This is the same scenario here. I don't know why people still think PS4 can beat Switch.

Actually, it's more than enough. When all is said and done PS4's total deficit in Japan compared to the Switch will be outstripped by PS4's surplus in Europe because at this point in time Switch is trailing behind the 3DS in Japan so it'll end up with lower lifetime sales in that region compared to it's predecessor while the PS4 has been consistently tracking ahead of it's predecessor in that region for a much longer time ... (PS4 will probably have a 15M+ unit advantage in Europe while the Switch will have a 10M+ unit advantage in Japan with PS4's advantage in the RotW at large yet to be factored in) 

Wii had stronger US sales than the 360 did at their respective start but did the Wii come out on top in the US ? 

Well first, PS4 is going to have to make up two gaps: US and Japan. That's the reason PS4 won't beat out Switch. Because consoles are momentum driven and the Switch has stronger momentum than the PS4, Switch will outsell it in those regions. Regardless, let's look at Japan.

In about the systems's 4th year, PS4 has sold about 5 million systems in Japan. The system won't be able to break 10 million LTD. The Switch has already sold at least half of that in a single year. Right now, the 3DS has sold 23 million in Japan. If we assume that the Switch sells less (which is dumb and I'll say why in a minute), then the Switch will sell about 20 million LTD in that region. This means, at a minimum, PS4's European sales will have to make up a gap of 10 million plus any gap that comes out of the US. But this is assuming the Switch is closer to 3DS sales than it is to DS sales. The PS2 sold about 23 million units. So Switch could easily sell 25 million units if the pace continues (and given the shortages of even games, I don't see it slowing). The reason the 3DS is selling faster is that it was the successor to the most successful system in Japan. The Switch didn't take off for a few months in Japan like it did in the US because Zelda is less popular there. Once Mario Kart and Splatoon came out, the system became sold out. So when you compare those two systems, a life to date tracking is going to be off because the Switch started slower and ramped up while the 3DS started strong and then fizzled out (which is why the price cut). 

The idea that PS4 will still outsell Switch is a lack of understanding of simple arithmetic and wishful thinking. In order for PS4 to outsell Switch, the difference in European sales needs to be greater than the difference in both US sales and Japan sales. And Switch isn't doing too bad in Europe as its selling about the same as it is in the US (based on Nintendo earnings releases). Moreover, Europe is not this magical sales region. If you look at historical sales, the best selling systems sold about the same in Europe and the US. PS4 is selling about the same in the US as it is in Europe (only about 3 million off). So no, it's not going to happen.

Last edited by VideoGameAccountant - on 08 January 2018