Disney's Star Wars $4 Billion Investment Has Already Paid For Itself

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To consider the deal's profitability, you need to consider opportunity costs. For example:

It's possible that if Disney never purchased Lucasfilm, Disney would have released an original IP or Pixar/Disney/Marvel film in its slot, which could have been wildly successful and not come a 4 billion price tag. So to consider the profit, it is not just against the 4 billions cost, but also against what Disney would have done with 3 alternate releases (which for Disney is probably in the 500 million/film range.)

On the other hand, it's possible that if Disney never purchased Lucas Film that they would have put out another money loser like John Carter or The Lone Ranger, which badly damaged Disney's reputation at the time.

Its also possible if Disney didn't buy Lucas Film, Fox or someone else would have, and the Star Wars films would be competing with Disney's release windows.

Finally, it's possible that the DOJ will reject the Disney acquisition of Fox's Film studios, and that had Disney never purchased LucasFilm, the deal could have passed.