So, it sold over 2M WW in Oct. Let's say that's 2.2M. I believe I read it sold ~1M in Nov in the US. That's 3.2M. It hasn't even hit 1M in Japan, yet. For Nov (this includes one day of Oct and 3 days of Dec) it sold ~392K. Let's be optimistic and say it sells ~2M for those two regions for Dec. That still only brings us to 5.6M for what will be, by far, its two largest regions. Not seeing where these extra sales are coming from. Sure, you still have Nov and Dec in the other regions, but Nintendo isn't the force it is in the US and Japan there. So, I could maybe see another 1.5M for them, bringing us to 7.1M. And Nintendo's digital sales ratio is nowhere near what it is on the PS4 and XBO. So, at best that would get us to 8M-8.5M.
Again, these are best case scenerios. Over 2M could be 2.01M. Mario may only sell 1M-1.5M during Dec in the US and Japan. It may only pull in 1M from the other regions. It may only see 5% of its sales through digital. I think 8.5M will be the ceiling. Still, ~5.5M is a nice floor to have.
SM3DL was at 5mil by years end. I think SMO is blowing past that. SM3DL had 625k+ sold in its first month. (Nov release and had a couple of weeks)
That said 2mil like you were talking about first 3/4days.
Japan sold though 400k by dec 3rd. SMO at least did 900k in US in Nov.
Going by how much will sell in each region here imo are the floors and ceilings of each...
Worldwide 6.2mil minimum and 10.5mil max
Of course the maximum are optimistic. But this is shipments+digital. As for your 5%, nintendo isnt that small anymore. Its not x1/ps4 average 30%-60% but its known to be around 10%. SMO US sales also will not include digital in the reports. To top it off SMO going by famistsu digital ratio was just over 10%.
NoA is optimistic sure but the game is around 2mil sold by BF in the US add canada 10% which is around 2.2mil. It can sell another 1.5mil in NoA putting it at 3.7mil minimum. This not including on store shelves+digital.