First charges filed in Mueller investigation

[Zanten]

JWeinCom said:

Zanten said:
For anyone interested, here's Flynn's Statement of Offense, containing some details on the lies he told the FBI, (which, to be clear, is why he's in this level of trouble, as generally lying to the FBI and impeding an investigation is kind of frowned upon,) and some details on the events in question. Unsurprisingly this is likely to lead to other convictions, as it provides confirmation that not only were members of Trump's transition team fully aware of contacts with Russian officials, during a time they claimed no such contacts were occurring, these contacts were actually made at the behest of members of Trump's team.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4319066-Flynn-Statement-of-Offense.html

Obviously there are omitted details from the statement, such as specific names of other individuals; this isn't because Flynn hasn't told these names to Mueller, (as his deal would require full capitulation,) but rather likely to keep the proverbial cards close to the investigation's chest. There could also be other incidents not detailed, as the purpose of the Statement is to provide enough evidence to prove that, yes, Flynn is indeed guilty of what he is confessing to. Some rumored reports are that Kushner is most likely the next rung on this particular ladder, as he was the 'senior official' mentioned in Flynn's statement, but it's unconfirmed at this time, so guess we'll just hafta wait and see.

Personally, still willing to bet they've insulated Trump so thoroughly during the whole endeavor, at best we're going to see most if not all of Trump's campaign and transition team charged, with the man himself claiming total ignorance of what said team was doing. =P (Second option being that he claims 'OHMEHGERD LIBERAL CONSPIRACY!') Even if that claim seems ridiculous, theoretically all they need to do is make sure no concrete evidence that Trump was directly involved and/or appraised of the situation surfaces, no paper trail or email chain ties him to it, and that nobody credible points a finger his way. Then he just claims his campaign and transition people did it without his approval, complains about Hillary for awhile, brags about his election win, and ultimately manages to squeeze past the worst of it.

In essence, if all instructions to make contact with Russian officials came from one or two of Trump's senior people, such as Kushner, all Trump needs to squeak through is make sure the buck stops with Kushner; that it was his idea, his plan, etc, and Trump was unaware of it happening. Whether it's true or not is irrelevant, as it would all come down to what Mueller can or can't prove.

 That's for criminal proceedings.  But impeachment does not require proof beyond reasonable doubt. 

Very true, though impeachment has its own challenges, as it is a rather long process with numerous steps that would require Trump to lose the support of enough Republicans;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_States

It's why no President has ever been successfully impeached, as even the two Presidents for whom proceedings reached their conclusion were acquitted. So even if enough weight comes down on Trump over this to get this matter through the various committees, then through the House and finally makes it to the Senate, if Trump retains enough Republican support he might just end up becoming the next President acquitted. This is even assuming the process makes it through the House without being shot down, of course.

Not saying it's impossible, but under the current political climate, it's likely to be very, very difficult.

 

EDIT: As an aside, the closest one might come to a successfully impeached President, in result, would be Richard Nixon; although Nixon chose to resign before proceedings could actually reach their conclusion, it looked very likely that if he had stood his ground, he WOULD have been impeached. Not only because of the things he had done, but because by all indications he had lost so much political favor, he had little to no chance of winning out in the Senate vote deciding his fate. The fun question is, if we were to assume something similar happened to Trump- that he lost enough political favor to make impeachment a near certainty- would he similarly opt for a face-saving measure by resigning early, or would he scream 'MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN FAKE NEWS HILLARRRRRYYYYY!" even as the Senate voted against him?

Last edited by Zanten - on 01 December 2017