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Lawlight on 31 October 2017
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torok said:
postofficebuddy said:
IIRC there were some people here who still thought PS4 wouldn't hit 100 million lifetime as recently as May. Sales would have to drop like a rock for that to happen at this point.

It was really funny. I did some math a year ago with RyngTolu and I got interesting results. First of all, PS4 is not tracking above the PS2, which makes sense since nobody here thinks it will outdo 160M. PS2 launched first in Japan and it took months to reach other markets. When you align all regions, PS2 still is a bit ahead and PS4 seems to track to a final 130M number.

The PS2 had weak competition. The X1 is by far much more successful than the GC and OG Xbox. So I think this prediction makes sense. I'm not sure if stuff like the PS4 Pro can increase the lifespan of the console and result in more sales.

I think the next console to be underrated will be the Switch. I think the only thing that could make it fail to reach 100M at this point would be an early successor interrupting his cycle. Ninty kind off cancelled the Wii U mid-gen and started their cycle again. They may feel the pressure of a PS5/X2 and release a new console, making Switch a relatively short-lived device, like the GBA. I don't think it is that likely, since their current cycle is now on par with their handheld upgrade schedule (DS/3DS) and not following the home console cycle.

Didn't RyngTolu predict that the PS4 will top out at 90M?