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Depends on what you mean by "major". Yoshi and Kirby sell about as well as Forza, but the perception is that those are more so back catalog titles that you buy in addition with your console, rather than console sellers like Forza was(though it is decreasing). Perception is actually pretty interesting. It's easy to say that the PS3 won over the Xbox 360 as far as exclusives go, but Microsoft's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th biggest franchises were competitive with Sony's biggest franchises on the PS3. Just trying to bring up an interesting point, not trying to start shit.

I think it will need two major games per year. Major as in, 6+ million. Stuff like Yoshi, Kirby, that's icing on the cake. Let's not forget that console sellers can be exclusive to certain regions. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo tried super hard to push Metroid Prime 4, to the point that it becomes a major console seller in America and certain parts of Europe. But that's just wishful thinking on my part ...