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specialk: Nintendo already lost a boatload of money by slashing the price to $170 just a few months after launch.

I pick 70 million, the 1st party software also had to be way better in the early going, and then maybe 90-100 million would have been doable. Of course, if they weren't focused on 3D, they might have launched with something different than Pilotwings and Steel Diver.