July 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1

[DonFerrari]

aLkaLiNE said:

poklane said:

Best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=245181399&postcount=45

[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 115K

2nd best GAF prediction: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=244891287&postcount=14

[NSW] 243K
[PS4] 219K
[XB1] 128K

The guy who makes the rankings for best predictions is refusing to go beyond the top 2 to prevents numbers from being calculated, but maybe someone can do something with the above numbers. Doubt it though.

I don't understand how the ranking system works over there or how you can deduce certain numbers through having other constants (such as the ps4/switch figures for that month) but is it reasonable to assume we're somewhere in the ballpark for ~120k +/-10% for X1?

I would analyse the sum and distribution.

560k total for 1st

590k for 2nd

official is 222+217+x = 439+x

so let's say on this X could be 121k to 151k

on the individual

220k vs 222k -> 1% error       225k vs 217k -> 3,7%    so X1 with 5% to 10% margin of error -> 103,5- 109k to 121k-126,5k... but should converge to 115k

243k vs 222k -> 9,5% error    219k vs 217k -> 1% and X1 with 2% to 5% margin (to have a similar sum of errors) -> 121,5-125,5k to 130,5-134,5k

on distribution

220:225:115 ->1.91:1,96:1

243:219:128 ->1,9:1,7:1

222:217:x to have something like 1,91 on Switch would mean -> 116k -> 1,91:1,87:1

                  to have something like 1,7 on PS4 would mean -> 127k-> 1,75:1,7:1

When putting the 3 scenarios for choosing the ranking I would say the best guess is 115-125k for X1. Which is a 27-33% drop YOY.