July 2017 NPD Thread! Switch #1

[librarian13579]

DonFerrari said:

CosmicSex said:
I wish we had Xbox One numbers so we could do a better analysis prediction sales in November with the X model. I will attempt a calculation anyway.

They will be "know" when the prediction league of some user gets finished and with the total numbers for PS4 and Switch is already know. But seems like it's quite small.

Hiku said:

Do you understand the term risk mitigation? Not "ellimination", which is what you are talking about.
It's been explained to you already in this thread.

Yes, we know that there's still a good chance that NPD cops can find him. It's about lowering the chance of that happening. Or delaying it.

Yes I do know the concept, in fact I work with it.

And the notion of mitigation you and librarian is using is laughing stock, there is zero mitigation in it. As you said yourself members of NPD lurk on Neogaf, do you think regular users of NeoGaf come here but NPD investigative group wouldn't? What librarian done is a very farcry from risk mitigation. on a scale of 125 on risk detection, catastrophic and probability of occurence this is like reducing the risk from 125 to 100 with luck.

I gave a method that would give much better distance from leaker to number.

Are you aware of how Brazilian Police got a very big group of botleggers on the "Tropa de Elite" movie? Each movie theather/chain would receive a copy with some special frames to identify it. So when the botlegged DVD come to market (even before movie theather release) they adquired a copy and by looking at the frames they were able to track who could be and investigation became quite easy.

So giving exact number is ALWAYS a big risk, even more because they could at some point give some form of slightly different information to some group and if that would be leaked they would know from where it came from.

So please don't try to be condescending on "Do you know what mitigation is?"

This is where you are wrong. NPD Group is very busy and their enforcement team doesn't work full-time. They tend to only start investigating things when it gets brought to their attention. They really don't go actively looking for leaks in small forums all that often. The 2chan leaks lasted for literally months before that was suppressed.

So yes, there actually was a good chance that NPD may have taken months to discover me if the numbers weren't blatantly and immediately leaked on NeoGAF, which is LITERALLY THE ONE PLACE NPD regularly visits. That's why that was my one request.