| RolStoppable said: 1. You commit a common hardware sales fallacy for software sales. It's the assumption that the trend of decline in the Wii U and 3DS era is likely to continue, but a new generation constitutes a reset of image and perception. Switch hardware and software has yet to exceed the totals of the previous generation, but the pace points towards an increase. If the hardware sells better, it's very probable that the software will rise as well. The example of Breath of the Wild is already one of a growing IP, even Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is likely to outsell the original version of the game. |
Yes, a new platform can obviously reset image and perception but IP growth is different and I didn't think that there would necessarily be a decline either ... (I thought that the strength of Nintendo IPs would have either held constant or maybe grow by as much as 15% with the Switch)
The pace does point to an increase however it's hard to dissociate how much of that is due to a better software output so far or just more pure innate interest in the hardware remains to be known ... (MK7, SM3DL, OoT Remake, dogs + cats (not sure this IP matters anymore), MH Tri vs MK8D, SMO, BotW, ARMS, Splatoon 2, MH XX is the tally so far between the 3DS and the Switch but it does look like the Switch has the early advantage)
| RolStoppable said: 2. The majority of Nintendo IPs having a presence on a console after three years isn't a cause for concern for the long term prospects. Nintendo's handhelds in particular have had healthy sales curves over their lives and you realize that Nintendo now holds a monopoly in that segment of the market again. You ask the question how Switch can sustain high sales after year 3, but the real question is why wouldn't it when it is the only option for consumers and has already built a rocksolid library of games, thanks to the majority of Nintendo IPs already having a presence. Since Switch is a portable console, hardware revisions are a given. Revisions are known to drive hardware sales. You are aware that Switch's hybrid nature comes with advantages, but you aren't thinking it through to the end if you have such doubts. |
Holding a monopoly is not an argument for the implication of growth. I would argue that Nintendo already held a monopoly with the 3DS with a market share of 80+% but that also assumes that of what little userbase Sony had with their portables doesn't overlap with being customers for Nintendo handhelds too so Nintendo could very well have higher penetration rates than what market share data would suggest ... (very little to be had on capitalizing a weak competitor such as Sony in portable gaming)
Nintendo still has to give an incentives over the platforms lifetime for consumers to purchase the Switch just like they did for the 3DS even well after the fact that Sony is gone ... (Just like how Sony had to get games for the PS4 that customers wanted in Japan despite practically having a monopoly with home consoles and they'll still most likely only get PS3 numbers over there)
I am well aware of the Switch's so called 'hybrid' nature and all of it's advantages or drawbacks. Revisions are going to become more scarce in the future as Moore's Law slows down and I realistically expect at most two paths for the Switch to take ... (the first being the 'Switch Pro' and the second being the 'Switch Slim' both using the same chips designed by Nvidia and manufactured on TSMC's 7nm transistor technology, Switch Pro will have the same form factor while sporting a more powerful chip and the Switch Slim with a smaller form factor for lower power consumption envelope and then there's the third possibility with a full Switch home console too)
| RolStoppable said: 3. There isn't a single Nintendo handheld that had a lifecycle of five years. The Game Boy had nine years (1989-1998), the GBC update had 1998-2001, the GBA was early 2001 to late 2004 (cut short only because Nintendo had to react to Sony's PSP), the DS lasted a good six years and the 3DS also lasted six. At the same time you overestimate the lifecycles of Sony and Microsoft consoles. But most importantly, why did you even write that final paragraph that implies that Switch belongs to the same generation as the PS4 and XB1? Looks like StarDoor's accusation that your feelings are getting in your way isn't wrong. You expect Switch's lifecycle to be shorter than the 3DS's for no logical reason. |
Of the 5 handhelds including the GBC (which had exclusive games too for it) from 1989 to 2016, Nintendo handhelds held an average lifespan of 5.4 years ... (DS lasted for 65 months which translates to 5.4 years and 3DS lasted 70 months which translates to 5.8 years which isn't quite 6 years)
I'm not overestimating the life cycle of Sony or Microsoft consoles. If anything I think the life cycles of home consoles DID drastically change from 5/6 years to 7/8. (I honestly think I'm doing it right for home consoles when we consider that the PS3 lasted for 7 years straight and Xbox 360 lasted for 8 years. It looks like both of them are waiting as long as possible to capitalize on more advanced transistor technology gains and so far the consensus seems to point to late 2020 or late 2021 for the next generation HD twins)
FWIW, I expect the Switch to have a similar life cycle which is 5 and a half years ... (my claim of a 2022 release still matches with the data we have so far at hand so I'm not sure why you're grilling me for it when the successor to the Switch could very well launch in late 2022)
If my feelings are getting in the way then the same probably applies you guys too since you were vested enough to mention it ... (those with partisanship can also raise valid points so the debate isn't impeded either way, in fact that's how it goes most of the time since one can't avoid it)
| RolStoppable said: I do not remember your original predictions/expectations for Switch, but I think you had to increase them already. People who have been terribly wrong commonly do this in steps, because there's a denial to have been so way off base. You have probably gone from "Switch will be lucky to reach 40m lifetime" to the current "40m looks like a lock now, but it might not be much more" because you've originally fallen victim to the AAA third party fallacy and didn't grasp the full extent of Nintendo having a monopoly over the handheld market again. Like I said, I don't remember the exact details of your old post, but I am quite sure that they had a very pessimistic outlook for Switch. |
I did not have much originally in the predictions with regards to the Switch but so far I'm expecting at least a north of 40+M units and I'm still uncertain how much further it can go ...
And maybe I did fall victim to the AAA fallacy but I don't think I fell into the third party trap yet and Nintendo had a monopoly with handhelds regardless of whether or not another party like Sony existed on that front as we can see with the 3DS ...
You don't remember because most likely I was only watching from the sidelines for the most part ... 
(can't really strike an invisible man such as myself but I do have some very hard questions for the Switch)
