Well, they can't know for sure if this or that game will be a commercial success if they don't try in the first place. ARMS is a moderate success, but so were the Fire Emblem games before Awakening got out. Since it opened the door for a new franchise, much like Splatoon did, who can say if the second game couldn't be a massive success? Splat2n sure is on its way for one of the biggest launch of the year in Japan, and preorders are good in the USA.
Gaming is a lot of trial-and-error. Their first party offering is STELLAR this year, but does it mean that it can support Switch humongous success? Only if they sprinkle 3-4 big titles throughout the year, which they did. Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, Mario, it's all part of their strategy to ensure continued momentum. I'm not worried one bit.
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