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irstupid on 08 June 2017
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VideoGameAccountant said:
Miguel_Zorro said:
Let's assume the following:
- The PS4 sales are flat in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016 at 17 million. They're currently running really close to those two years.
- The Switch sells every unit that Nintendo can produce in the 2017 calendar year.
- Nintendo hits their ramped up production target of 18 million units by March 31, 2017
- That of the 18 million units already sold, Nintendo will have sold 3.5 million by the end of April 2016, leaving 14.5 million units left to be produced.
- Those 14.5 million units will be produced evenly month over month, meaning 1.2 million units will be produced and sold each month. That's ~10 million over the months from May through December.
- 10 million + 13.5 million = 13.5 million units sold for the Switch in 2017

The PS4 outsells the Switch comfortably in 2017, driven by stronger PS4 sales over the October-December months.

There are two assumptions from those that say Sony will win

 

  1. Sony sales wont decline
  2. Nintendo can't produce enough Switch units
Both of these I think are pretty weak. Enough has been said about the second point as Nintendo is ramping production to Wii levels. But on the first, why should we think that Sony won't decline. Remember we aren't in the summer months yet. These are the worst time for gaming generally. The PS4 is in its fourth year, so we should expect some decline. Moreover, Sony has benefited from the lack of any competition. Almost all of the increase in PS4's software sales vs PS3 is from the decline in XBox software sales. Hardware is similar. Sony doesn't have the benefit of being the only person in the market. Nintendo is real competition. With this in mind, why should we expect that Sony can keep its earlier sales volume up? As a note, everyone says "Oh, well, Nintendo got to sell exactly what they say," but everyone assumes Sony will do that. Why can we not assume Sony will not make projections. 

 

Plus ignoring the Switch, there is also the Scorpio this holiday season. As you said, the PS4's competition the last holiday for example was a dead console (The Wii U) and a inferior identical console (One/S). Really anyone looking to purchase a new gaming system shoudl have looked at the PS4/Pro.

This upcoming season though, there is the new hot item, the Switch. Which is vastly different than the PS4/Pro and its offerings. Then there is the new Scorpio, which even if it is essentially identical to the PS4 in its offereings, it will be the top end model. No longer the inferior console when talking multiplats.

Both should steal a console or two from the PS4 this holiday season. So expecting same sales from PS4 this year as last year is being dillusional. One has to admit compared to last year, the PS4 has competition this year. It's like last year they were the Warriors palying the worst teams in the NBA. This year, they are playing the best teams in the NBA. Now I'm not saying the warriors can't still win, or won't, just that they won't be blow outs this year. The other teams will score more points and the warriors will score less points.