torok said:
I think you're looking it as a short term strategy. It's clear that console gens won't take 5 years anymore. A bunch of games takes 5 years to be developed, gens must become longer to accomodate this development cycle. Reducing the need to adapt to new platforms is also a plus that cuts development costs down. I know we all want the latest and greatest, but we unfortunately have to hold things a bit so studios can actually make money instead of going bankrupt. While the last gen went for 7 years, it sufffered a lot in the final 2 because the hardware was too outdated. And those were consoles that were pretty powerful when launched. PS4 and X1 never were so powerful and that's reasonable because PS360 needed billions of dollars of losses until they became profitable. They were powerful so they could last but it didn't worked. The new strategy is to launch moderately powerful units and release a more powerful unit mid-gen. When the gen is close to its end, the more powerful unit will be way cheaper. Maybe even the base model will already be discontinued. Late adopters will buy those. So the problem of extremely dated hardware will be gone, since the new units won't be significantly more dated in 2020 that the base models are now. As for early adopters with the base model, they will jump to the PS5/Xnextgen quick, so nobody will be that outdated anymore. Imagine how some early current gen ports to PS360 like MGS5, Shadow of Mordor, CoD and BF4 could be way better if we had Pro versions in 2010. They are just trying to make longer gens viable to allow them (and developers) to profit instead of dying off or having to rip us off even more with DLC and microtransactions. |
As long as the base PS4 and X1 have to be supported, then your argument falls flat on its face. Those games you listed that "could be way better" would be exacrtly the same, since developers would still have to support the base Xbox 360 and base PS3. Sony and MS are going to mandate that these consoles be supported as part of the platform, since the vast majority of the platform users will be using that base specification, and it would be horrifically bad PR to let those users get the feeling that they're being abandoned.. Remember the vast majority of a hardware's sales tend to come after it's first three years on the market, because that's when consoles tend to meet a price threshold that tends to bring a higher volume of sales. New, higher spec'd more expensive consoles isn't going to change that in the slightest. If given the choice, most people are going to want the cheapest console, not the most powerful one, especially if they both play the same games.
Let's just take a look at what the PS4 Pro has done since it's announcement. Nothing has really changed for the vast majority of PS4 owners (over 90%) except now, development costs for the people making the games has risen since engines have to be revised to accomodate these new specifications, and specification specific optimizations and modes need to be made. What we don't see is tens of millions of PS4 users upgrading their consoles to PS4 Pros, and we also don't see the vast majority of new console buyers opting for the PS4 Pro over the PS4. The PS4 Pro is a very niche product for a very small minority of the userbase, and there's no reason to think Scorpio will be any different.
5-6-7 year long development times for games isn't exactly a new phenomena (Hello Duke Nukem Forever, and Aliens: Colonial Marines), so i don't see why the industry needs to change to accomodate that. If anything, the industry has tried to stream line the submission and certification process, switched to familiar hardware architectures, and dramatically improved developer tools to ensure that great games can be made and released quicker, cheaper and easier than ever before. The push is for shorter development times, not longer ones. I don't think this "generation" is going to last any longer because of the existance of the PS4 Pro and Scoprio. The PS5 will come when PS4 sales start to trail off and developers start complaining about how the base PS4 and X1 are impeding their development. I think the PS4 Pro was an experient by Sony to see how the market reacts to such a console, but based on the results, I don't see any reason why its existance would change the schedule for the PS5.
P.S. I say this as a PS4 Pro owner, who doesn't have a 4K TV and has no interest in getting one in the next 4-5 years. The only reason I had one is because my launch PS4 was starting to act a bit flaky, and gamestop had a hell of a trade in deal for the PS4 Pro at the time.
