RolStoppable said:
Easy explanation, yes. Logical, probably not. Installed base =/= active installed base, that's what happening here and it is normal. Whether you measure it by gaming hours or yearly software sales, neither value is going to keep up with the units that get added to total hardware sales because people stop using their consoles regularly eventually, be it by playing less or not at all. There's no such thing as perpetual growth in gaming hours or yearly software sales for any video game system. Values usually peak/plateau in year 2-4, afterwards its downhill despite total hardware sales still growing. The people who buy in late aren't great enough in numbers to offset the disinterest of people who bought a system earlier in the lifecycle. That's why console generations last 5-6 years, because the dynamics of the market demand it. |
Honestly your post is confusing AF. According to you, Xbox should be in the peak/plateau range right? Years 2-4, we're in year 3. Then you start talking about people who bought in late, but what does that mean? Is late halfway through the lifecycle? 1 year? 2 years? And your last two sentences from what I understand are suggesting that a deficit is created where people who stop playing the console becomes higher than the people who are purchasing the console. Of course that happens, and this is what I think you were talking about when referring to no perpetual growth until the end of time, but we should definitely not be at that point yet, a mere 3 years into the gen. Which is why I think it IS logical to say that UHD has caused an influx of non gamers that wanted a cheap affordable blu Ray player. Which is why hardware growth has vastly outpaced gaming hours growth. I think over the next few months we should expect that hardware growth to disappear but gaming hours will remain flat or see growth, as the concentration of buyers will be gamers and more affordable options arise for UHD players.
