Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

[zorg1000]

zelmusario said:

zorg1000 said:

Take a look at 3DS lineup in 2011 for comparison, it did 4.3 million that year. Here are the big sellers for 3DS in Japan in 2011 and the amount they sold that year.

Professor Layton Miracle Mask-355,000 (February)

Nintendogs+Cats-455,000 (February)

Ocarina of Time 3D-490,000 (June)

Monster Hunter 3G-987,000 (December)

Super Mario 3D Land-1,092,000 (November)

Mario Kart 7-1,190,000 (December)

So you had a couple of big launch titles in February and a few huge holiday titles with a 13 year old remaster as the only major title in between. Switch has a much better lineup of big games and they are spread out through the year.

3DS also had a 40% price cut in late summer that year, though, which really helped to bolster sales from then on. There are a number of variables at play here, though and you're right that Switch has some big marquee titles this year. Zelda and MK8 Deluxe could get things going, with Spla2oon bridging the gap in the summer until Mario arrives in the holidays. But to compare sales of the two consoles without knowing whether Switch will get a massive price cut isn't a very fair comparison. To me, it just sounds unlikely that Switch will move almost as many units as 3DS did without a price cut. 

But I could be way off base, too. Looking at your numbers, you make a compelling argument. I'm torn. lol

Yes, the price cut certainly played a factor but a price cut only causes a temporary boost and a console needs a steady flow of big games to maintain momentum.

If the 2011 linuep was more like

Nintendogs-February

Professor Layton-April

Ocarina of Time-June

Mario 3D Land-August

Monster Hunter-October

Mario Kart-December

with small titles mixed in than it is entirely possible that sales would have remained stable and a price cut been entirely unnecessary.