| HappySqurriel said: True enough, but that is why I initially choose 1/10,000,000 as the probability of having 1 person who had 11 defects (because we know of 1 person out of 10,000,000 who has had 11 defects); if we assumed that Microsoft was remarkably unlucky and the actual probability of having 1 person with 11 defects was 1/1,000,000,000 the probability of having 1 defective unit would still be 15%
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This probability analysis is all well and good, but it all assumes that the probability of any one Xbox 360 failing is the same as the probability of every other Xbox 360 failing. We know the guy had an electrician check the wiring in his house, but that doesn't rule out other factors that could be causing his systems to fail.
What we can really gather from this story is that the kid still loves the box. 
