Another Perfect score for MGS4 by PSM

[jalsonmi]

MGS: 5.59m sales on an install base of 100m
MGS2: 5.56m sales on an install base of 120m
MGS3: 3.97m sales on an install base of 120m

I fail to see why the install base argument is still valid. MGS did not launch when the PS1's install base was 100m, MGS2 did not launch when the PS2's install base was 120m, and MGS3 probably had more than 2-3 times the install base of MGS2 but sold LESS. One half of the sales come from Launch numbers the other half comes from sales over time whether it's new console owners or old console owners. MGS4's success should only be compared to the attach rate of the previous MGS games during launch. The legs of the game are impossible to compare with previous games since no one knows how far the install base of the PS3 will go.

Half of what you say is partially my point--MGS3 has less sales with a larger install base. MGS games in gneral don't sell as well as more mainstream games of similar quality, despite it's huge sales. Which is why I said to compare it to all the other franchises I mentioned--it's attach rate is marketly smaller than all of them, even other PS based big franchises. And this wasn't a comment on how MGS4 will do, rahter a comment on the MGS franchise up to this point being in a more niche genre than the other blockbuster franchises.

Now, I dont think MGS4 will sell as well as people are predicting--somthing closer to 3 million than 5-6 million, but if it turns out have more of a shooter element than previous games as reviews are saying maybe it'll find a more widespread audience. And it's not like 3 million isn't great itself. But since I don't think the PS3 is going to sell as well as either PS or PS2 (not a slam, just looking at market trends and not seeing 100-120 million units there for the having--this shouldn't be an outlandish claim), I don't think it'll have the same legs as previos MGS games, and certainly based on current install base I don't think it'l have the same initial sales either. But hey, most big MGS fans I know are also thus big Sony guys, so maybe most of the games fanbase either already have a PS3 or were waiting for MGS4 to buy one, and MGS4 will have the highest attach rate the franchise has ever had.