The fact is, Nintendo keeps chasing two audiences it most likely won't get. One, the casuals, just aren't there, anymore. At least not in the kind of numbers that make a difference. And the other, the core market, just haven't been very interested in Nintendo consoles for a long time. While the NX does seem to be a less casual console than the Wii U (unless they plan on still using Wii U controllers), it still won't be a hit with the core gaming audience.
If they are actually releasing this year, it's an odd time to launch. This gen is at the middle point, with a clear winner that still has great momentum, and people aren't ready for it to be over, yet. And if NX is only around the same power level as the PS4, or possibly less, who is going to buy it save Nintendo fans? Then you have price. Most likely the NX will aim for a $399 price point. But, against an already dominant (and soon to be $299) PS4, it doesn't stand a chance.
I really see no way for the NX to be a hit. Not unless Nintendo takes a loss and it is at least 2x-3x more powerful than the PS4, for only $349 AND all 3rd party games are coming to it, with plenty of great 1st party games coming out every few months. Let's be honest, that just isn't happening. And God help it when the PS5 launches in 2019 at $399 and being 4x-5x more powerful than the PS4.
