You seem to heavily underestimate it. According to vgchartz it already is at 140k pre-orders two weeks before launch. Obviously thr US won't be under 200k at launch
I hope the game crushes my prediction. I'm getting it, I loved the first one, but vgchartz having it at 140k pre-orders doesn't change my prediction. The first one was amazing and didn't set any region on fire, and yes, I know of the limited release in america. I just have the feeling the game is going to have a very low key release, 100k. That doesn't mean it won't have great legs and sell well in the end. I would love to see it sell 3+ million.
but when it probably has around 140k preorders for the US, how should it sell around 100k at launch? This is impossible.