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RolStoppable said:
Miguel_Zorro said:

I'm not sure what that means, but it's not easy to pick against my Bills.

You waited until the last minute for something that should have been a no-brainer if you did the maths.

Pick the Bills
1. If Bills win: You finish first with two games ahead of second.
2. If Bills lose: You finish tied for first.

Pick the Patriots
1. If Patriots win: You finish first with one game ahead of second.
2. If Patriots lose: You finish first with one game ahead of second.

The above alone makes a Patriots pick already the better decision, but the benefits are even greater when third place and below are taken into account. A wrong Patriots pick wouldn't have hurt you, because almost everyone picked them, including all of your relevant competitors. But a wrong Bills pick would have costed you.

If you weighed the risk/reward ratios of all possible scenarios, then picking the Patriots was a really easy decision because it guaranteed sole possession of first place while the negatives were far smaller than with a Bills pick. But it took you the whole day and until the last minute to submit that change. I was expecting a change all along.

Yes, I was aware of the logic. I was at work all day, then came home, then put baby to bed, then remembered to make the change at the last minute.  There's a difference between having other stuff to do and waiting.   I guess everybody saw through my initial "Bills by 28" pick.