Previous thread was a bit too soon, so it feel flat on it's face but let's try this again, this time with less than 48 hours to go! For those of you just tuning in, this election is a pretty big deal. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been in power since 2006 and lead the Conservative Party through a number of minority governments and finally a majority government in 2011. Harper has become a controversial figure because of his style of governance, command of the party and recent bills brought forward such as Bill C-51. Despite this, the Conservatives still manage to maintain the support of it's base and cannot be written off in this election.
The challengers to Harper's government is Justin Trudeau, leader of the Liberal Party and Thomas Mulcair, leader of the New Democratic Party. The opposition parties are keen on defeating Harper but aren't exactly the best of friends either. To make matters more interesting, most of the election has been a three-way tie between the major parties. While the Trudeau Liberals seem to lead the opinion polls, anything could happen on election day. No matter who wins, this election will be one for the history books.
MAJOR PARTIES
The Conservative Party of Canada
Leader: Stephen Harper
Seats Before Election: 159
Seats After Election: TBA
Change: TBA
The Liberal Party of Canada
Leader: Justin Trudeau
Seats Before Election: 36
Seats After Election: TBA
Change: TBA
The New Democratic Party
Leader: Thomas Mulcair
Seats Before Election: 95
Seats After Election: TBA
Change: TBA
MINOR PARTIES
The Green Party
Leader: Elizabeth May
Seats Before Election: 2
Seats After Election: TBA
Change: TBA
The Bloc Québécois
Leader: Gilles Duceppe
Seats Before Election: 2
Seats After Election: TBA
Change: TBA
Opinion Polls
I'll be using the latest polls from CBC/ThreeHunderedAndEight. Globe and Mail also has an interesting poll simulator/projector. Check it out here: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/
10/19/2015
Party | Projected Seats |
Conservative Party | 118 |
New Democratic Party | 66 |
Liberal Party | 146 |
Green Party | 1 |
Others | 0 |
Bloc Québécois | 7 |
If you're unsure who to vote for, or you're just curious on which party suits your views the most, check out CBC's Vote Compass, it's pretty neat.
Election Results:
Party | Seats Elected |
Conservative Party | 99 |
Liberal Party | 184 |
New Democratic Party | 44 |
Green Party | 1 |
Bloc Québécois | 10 |
Others | 0 |
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Making things more personal now. My vote will probably go to the NDP, mostly since I'm not too keen on either Conservatives or Liberals this election. I think the Conservatives are suffering from fatigue and need a break from ruling power to find a new leader and just come up with something new. After almost a decade in power I think it would be good for them. Also while I admire Justin Trudeau's passion, he does not feel like a leader to me and I feel that someone else on the backbench is ruling the Liberal Party instead. Considering the party's history, my dislike for the Ontario Liberals and their most recent scandal, I'm not too confident in Trudeau's plan for "change". The Greens are decent but nothing to make me consider voting for a minor party unless there is electoral reform.
If I had to guess, the Liberals will probably win a miniority and Conservatives will form the official opposition.
Party | Projected Seats |
Liberal Party | 163 |
Conservative Party | 123 |
New Democratic Party | 50 |
Green Party | 1 |
Bloc Québécois | 1 |
The continuing Liberal momentum I think will continue to erode away at NDP support (unless something drastic happens this weekend to stop the surge) and land the Liberals just short of a majority. The Conservatives will probably remain stable or perhaps slightly increase. Green will win their safe seat in BC and Bloc probably won't find much support despite the NDP dip in Quebec. Hard to say where the NDP will land but it's not looking so hot right now as Liberal support is very strong.