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Fractal of Time said:

When Blu-ray has won the war in 2009: PS3 $300 Standalone Blu-ray player $100 360 $200 (premium). Consumers will think PS3 is as cheap as 360, because of Blu-ray. Wii $100 and we know it will get a boost in sales with this low price. But it can't stay at this lowprice until 2011.

Wii dominance will be over after 2009. Because they can't lower the price anymore. Before that 360/PS3 sales are low or average. Developers need to make games for Wii and a PS3/360. There will be no major exclusive from a third party developer, just because making these games costs a lot of $$$.
Microsoft needs there sweetspot this year. And buy some more exclusives. Best would be the 2 upcoming GTA games, after GTA4.

I believe that casual gamers look at value of there consoles AND the games they want (most likely multiplatform).


Being that 80% of PS2 owners spent less than $200 to buy their  PS2 what portion of the userbase do you think is willing to spend $400 or more on a PS3?

Would it be fair to assume that the absolute maximum number of PS2 users that are willing to buy the PS3 before it is $300 or less is 15 Million?

This means that in 2009 when the PS3 finally makes it to $300 the largest userbase you could assume it would have is (roughly) 15 Million users. How many exclusive games does 15 Million users buy you, or better yet how many games will even be ported to your system with such a small userbase?

Value in terms of videogames comes directly from library size for most gamers, the higher price will lead to lower sales which means that the PS3 will be of lower value than either of the other systems.