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I just want to point out that statistically, 2nd full year is better than 1st in almost every instance excluding the WiiU. So yes, 23m is attainable, specially considering Halo 5, Tomb Raider, Fable, and Forza 6 will all be out in the same year.

Though ill take 21-22m

EDIT: WiiU is also higher in second full year than first, so in every instance