Prediction: Wii U peak>GC peak

[Yakuzaice]

Goodnightmoon said:

gcube2000 said:
GameCube had terrible legs with the only years over 5 million was fiscal year 2003 and fiscal year 2004. The Wii U might not make it as high in the 2015 fiscal year but in the 2016 fiscal year it will.

GameCube vs Wii U sales by fiscal year

2002- 3.80m vs 2013- 3.45m
2003- 5.76m vs 2014- 2.72m
2004- 5.02m vs 2015- Prediction= 4.82m
2005- 3.92m vs 2016- Prediction= 6.34m
2006- 2.35m vs 2017- Prediction= 4.05m
2007- 0.73m vs 2018- Prediction= 2.89m
2008- 0.16m vs 2019- Prediction= 0.85m
2020- Prediction= 0.22m
Total- 21.74m vs 25.34m

Yes I think Wii U will last until 2020 and sell at least 25 million

2.72 this year? I think it will be around 3.7m by the end of 2014. An I´m not sure but didn´t WiiU sold 3.2 at 2013? it´s almost the same anyway.

He's talking about fiscal year shipments. 

Though I'm not really sure how he is predicting 4.82m for this year.  If we give around 600k for Q4, that would mean it needs 3.1m for Q3 to hit his 4.82m.  3.1m is up nearly 60% YoY.  So far Japan is down by 90k and showing no sign of being up YoY.  The US is up about 30k.  So unless trends change in December it is looking like the average between Japan and the US will be roughly flat.  Japan and the Americas were over three fourths of shipments last year in Q3.  That means in order to hit 3.1m Europe/Others will need to be up 230%.  That also means Others will need to be more than the Americas and Japan combined.  That would be a pretty huge difference from the historical trends.