I think it really depends on what happens in the US market between January and May. If Xb one consistently outsells PS4, because they make the $50 price cut permanent, which they will, then I see Sony going the whole hog and dropping to $299. They will do this because they know MS will easily respond to a $50 cut with another cut of their own to $299, and that will leave things in favour of xb one. In fact more in favour of xb one since $299 seems to be a mass market price, which means MS getting there first and having a holiday at that price point with Sony still in the >300 range probably means an even bigger sales advantage. But MS is highly unlikely to cut below $299 so if Sony shoots straight for that figure, MS will merely price match and that will almost certainly favour PS4.
However if PS4 can regularly outsell xb one with a $50 price difference I see a cut to just $350 as likely, but with $299 specials on Black Friday.
A 1TB sku would seem like a good bet too, at $399.
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